Coral Ridge Homeowners Association

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3 weeks ago

TROPICS UPDATE: MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2019 HURRICANE LORENZO IS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE GIANT HURRICANE ARE PROPAGATING ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE OCEAN AND IMPACTING THE EAST COAST – BUT NORTH OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ON THE FLORIDA COAST. HURRICANE LORENZO is no longer its record-breaking self, but it is still a threat to the Azores Islands – a territory belonging to Portugal, but well offshore of that country. The storm is tracking over relatively cooler water, but the upper winds still appear conducive enough for Lorenzo to remain unusually strong and large for tropical systems in that part of the ocean. Lorenzo is forecast still to be a hurricane when it is in the vicinity of the Azores late tomorrow or on Wednesday. After that, it will transition into a North Atlantic winter-type storm, and may affect the British Isles late in the week. The exact impact there is still uncertain. This is a case where the skinny forecast cone does not tell the story, since the hurricane is so large. The winds extend far outside the cone. The area of the potential effect of high winds is captured in the “Time to Be Ready” graphic. Energy from the giant circulation is radiating out across the Atlantic Ocean. Strong swells are causing dangerous conditions in the ocean along unprotected shorelines, including the East Coast of the U.S. South Florida is protected from the swells by the Bahamas, but up the coast, north of the Palm Beaches, the water height is being elevated because of the extra push of water caused by Lorenzo. In SOUTH FLORIDA, mid to late week a moisture surge is forecast to move through. Some moisture from ex-KAREN and ex- JERRY, which have essentially merged together, may be part of that weak system. No consequential weather is forecast – just an increase in clouds and rain coverage. That moisture surge will move into the Gulf of Mexico. There is a very slight chance it might try to become a more organized disturbance there, before it runs into the Mexican coast. ELSEWHERE, no tropical developments appear imminent. ... See MoreSee Less

Coral Ridge Association shared a post.

3 weeks ago

TROPICS UPDATE: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2019 KAREN IN STRUGGLING AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT MIGHT EVENTUALLY THREATEN FLORIDA IS NOW LOW. Karen is being discombobulated by hostile upper winds as it tracks into a holding pattern north of Puerto Rico and well east of the Bahamas. The consensus of the computer forecast models, which is adopted by the National Hurricane Center, is that Karen will loop in the open Atlantic over the weekend and slowly die out. Early next week, the remnants of the system may be deflected in the general direction of the Bahamas and Florida. There is still some uncertainty in this forecast, however. Some computer forecast models show Karen hanging around longer, but then trend toward weakening the system. The remnants, possibly as a moisture surge, could cross Florida next week. For now, plan to stay informed over the weekend on the chance that something unexpected happens. But it’s most likely that it will not be a significant system when or if it comes near Florida. HURRICANE LORENZO has become a large, strong storm in the far eastern Atlantic. Thankfully, it will turn north well before it gets to the Caribbean islands. It may affect the Azores west of Portugal, however, next week. OTHERWISE, there are no threatening systems of note. Look for new advisories throughout the day at HurricaneIntel.com ... See MoreSee Less

Coral Ridge Association shared a post.

1 month ago

TROPICS UPDATE: TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2019 WE CONTINUE TO WATCH 3 DISORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. Tropical Disturbance #1 is unlikely to develop in the next few days as it heads in the general direction of Florida. It is mixed up with an upper-level low pressure system which is not allowing it to develop. When it gets in the vicinity of Florida about Friday and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, conditions are forecast to become somewhat more favorable. Development will be slow but residents on the northern Gulf coast should stay aware. In any case, it will bring a moisture surge to Florida late in the week. Unfortunately, the increased rain chance will affect the recovery efforts in the Bahamas as well. Tropical Disturbance #2 may have a chance to develop a little before it plows into unfavorable upper winds around the weekend as it nears the Caribbean islands. There is no indication it will amount to much, though it may bring some gusty squalls to the islands. Tropical Disturbance #3, which just left the coast of Africa, will be hot on the heels of #2. The trade winds that drive systems across the Atlantic are forecast to increase and push #3 quickly along. The computer forecast models indicate that the atmospheric conditions will be somewhat more favorable for the development of #3 than for the other disturbances. Computer models do not forecast undeveloped systems well, so it’s not worth even speculating what might happen a week from now, but it’s a system that we’ll have to watch as it moves west. It is forecast to be near the eastern Caribbean islands late in the weekend or early next week. There is a strong Bermuda high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the east coast of the U.S. that will that will tend to hold systems south, for now. But the exact nature of the steering currents is impossible to predict. Stay informed. Tropical Storm Gabrielle is in the North Atlantic, and will be in the vicinity of northern Great Britain in a couple days. ... See MoreSee Less