4 days ago

Coral Ridge Association

#FLPD welcomed 6 new members to our family today! Please join us in congratulating our newest officers 👏 #JoinFLPD #Proud
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7 days ago

Coral Ridge Association

8:00 AM TROPICAL UPDATE: HURRICANE FLORENCE is bearing down on North Carolina, and a bizarre scenario of stalling and drifting that will prolong the misery now appears likely. The new track indicates much of South Carolina will eventually be impacted by the storm as well.

There are three systems of concern:

• HURRICANE FLORENCE is on track to be an historic disaster in the Carolinas extending over several days, into next week.
• TROPICAL STORM ISAAC will move through the eastern Caribbean islands tomorrow, likely as a tropical storm.
• DISTURBANCE 95L – using the National Weather Service numbering system – is somewhat less organized today. It may develop into a tropical storm in the western Gulf and threated Texas.

HURRICANE FLORENCE has peak winds estimated at 130 mph this morning – Category 4. The track through tomorrow is unchanged. It is expected approach the North Carolina coast late tomorrow night as a powerful and destructive hurricane. At that point the storm is expected to slow to a crawl, extending the amount of time the coastal communities will be battered.

Whether Florence stalls tomorrow night with its center over the ocean, or just ashore, is an open question. It is too close to call. The farther inland it goes, the more flooding ensues over saturated ground. If the center says over the water, the hurricane stays stronger longer, prolonging the hammering on the coastline.

After Florence reaches the North Carolina coast, the consensus of the models indicates that the center of Florence might drift down the South Carolina coast, spreading the misery into that state, perhaps significantly affecting Charleston and even Savannah. This is going to be a slow process extending through the weekend, so it’s too early to be precise.

Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for most of the South Carolina and all of the North Carolina coast. Storm surge will be life-threatening over the part of that coastline that ends up north of the storm center. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the ocean water to be pushed 9-13 feet over the land on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, with lesser but still life-threatening surge over most of the Carolina coast and up into the various bays, rivers, and inlets.

In addition, the rainfall forecast has now increased to 20 to 30 inches, with some spots in the coastal Carolinas receiving 40 inches. Inland areas will receive less, but still 5-20 inches with some areas receiving 20 inches of rain.

A hurricane that stalls and meanders just offshore is one of the most destructive scenarios.

Here are the Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center concerning Hurricane Florence:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should complete preparations and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC is struggling with hostile upper-level winds, which are keeping it from significant strengthening. The official forecast keeps it below hurricane strength as it passes through the eastern Caribbean islands tomorrow, but that forecast is still somewhat uncertain.

The threat of high winds and torrential rainfall exists for the affected islands.

Isaac is forecast to move into the central Caribbean Sea over the weekend and weaken. Its eventual track may have something to do with the way Florence tracks and how strong it remains, which is, of course, doubly uncertain. So we’ll have to watch it. The remnants of Isaac could get pulled north toward South Florida, but it would likely be a minor disturbance by that time.

Here are the Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center concerning Isaac:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.

DISTURBANCE 95L, using the NHC number, was showing signs of organization, but less so today. It will move across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and into the southern and western Gulf where it might organize into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next couple days. These systems can spin up quickly, so residents in northern Mexico and Texas should stay informed.

HURRICANE HELENE and POTENTIAL DISTURANCES #1 and #2 are not expected to affect land over the next several days, if ever.
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Thanks to another awesome Coral Ridge Neighborhood Sponsor — Friends of Birch State Park ... See MoreSee Less

Thanks to another awesome Coral Ridge Neighborhood Sponsor — Friends of Birch State Park

1 week ago

Coral Ridge Association

In remembrance of 9-11 we share this image taken of the U.S. Navy Blue Angels over the Twin Towers, just a few months prior in May 2001 ... See MoreSee Less

1 week ago

Coral Ridge Association

8:00 AM TUESDAY TROPICAL UPDATE: A Hurricane and Storm Surge Watch has been issued for most of the South Carolina coast and all of the North Carolina coast. A Watch will be issued for some of the islands in the eastern Caribbean later today.

Summary: HURRICANE FLORENCE may reach Category 5 strength today as it makes a beeline for the Carolinas. ISAAC is struggling to maintain its strength, but is on track toward the Caribbean at or near hurricane strength. In addition, a disturbance in the western Caribbean is heading for the western Gulf where it may develop into a threat for Texas or Northern Mexico.

FLORENCE is still a Category 4 hurricane, though it is going through an internal process called an “eyewall replacement cycle” whereby it weakens temporarily, expands into a bigger hurricane, and then restrengthens. The current peak winds are estimated at 130 mph – Category 4. It has warmer ocean water and optimal atmospheric conditions ahead of it, which means more strengthening is likely.

The expectation is that it will strengthen some more before it approaches the Carolina coast on Thursday. Strong hurricanes always fluctuate in intensity, so it is impossible to know if might hit the coast at full strength, but the expectation is that it will be an extremely strong and destructive hurricane. In addition, Florence is expected to expand in size over the next two days. Widespread coastal destruction is expected to be Phase One of this disaster

The steering currents are well established for now, so there is high confidence that Florence will reach the North or South Carolina coast on Thursday. About that time, the steering currents will collapse, however, so for at least a couple of days, the hurricane, or a weaker version of the storm, will meander and dump rain. This might happen close to the coast, or well inland. Phase Two of this disaster will be caused by the slow-moving storm. It will either continuously batter the coast, severely flood inland areas, or more likely, both.

Bear in mind that slow-moving storms are notoriously poorly forecast, so don’t count on any precise track forecasts during or after landfall. In addition, the damaging winds and flooding rain will occur far from the storm’s center, especially to the north, meaning the exact track is not important. Widespread rainfall of 15-20 inches with up to 30 inches in some locations is possible. This part of the eastern U.S. has been saturated by rain this year, so extreme flooding is possible.

Here are the Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center concerning Florence:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of this area. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a part of this area. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

HURRICANE ISAAC is still forecast to be a threat to the eastern Caribbean Islands – the Lesser Antilles – this week. The weather should deteriorate in the islands Wednesday night, with the storm passing through the islands on Thursday. If Isaac stays to the right side of the cone, it could affect Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands after that. The forecast for Isaac is unusually uncertain, however.

Since Isaac is a small hurricane, it has the ability to intensify quickly, but also to weaken quickly if the atmospheric conditions become hostile. The upper winds that will impact the track of Isaac are forecast to be marginally hostile in part thanks to Hurricane Florence to the north. Those winds should keep Isaac from dramatically intensifying, but it is still forecast to reach the islands at or near hurricane strength.

The bottom line is that the eastern Caribbean islands should prepare for a hurricane arriving Thursday, but another Hurricane Maria is not in the cards.

After Isaac moves into the Caribbean late Thursday, its is most likely to weaken and move west, but that it uncertain. The models diverge somewhat, but most show a weaker Isaac at that time. It is too early to know for sure what factors might steer Isaac, though usually weaker storms are swept along to the west.

Here are the Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center concerning Isaac:

1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, confidence in the forecast is lower than normal.

2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac during the next couple of days. Watches will likely be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles later today.

The area of disturbed weather labeled DISTURBANCE #2 is getting better organized. It will pass over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and then head into the western Gulf. At that time, the upper-level winds are forecast to become somewhat conducive for a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm to form. Along the Texas and northern Mexico coast, be aware that storms can organize and intensify quickly over the warm waters of the Gulf.

HURRICANE HELENE is moving north into the Atlantic and will not affect land.

The system labeled DISTURBANCE #1 may eventually get a name. It will not affect land this week as it meanders far out in the Atlantic.
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4 responses to “

  1. Suzanne southwell

    There have been several homeless people who camp at Chic Fil A every night. Also people living out of an suv. I do not feel safe taking my trash out at night and do not feel safe. Is there anything the police can do to remedy this? I’m not sure Chic Fil A even knows.

    • Christian Petersen

      Suzanne,

      If you do not feel safe, please call the police whenever you see the situation so they can address it while it is happening. We will pass along the information to our FLPD liaison officers at our next meeting. Thank you.

      Christian

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